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Philadelphia Union II vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2018

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
8/25/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 45Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Philadelphia Union II39%
×Draw24%
Birmingham Legion37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.60
Birmingham Legion
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 119 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.64
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.71
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
63%
Philadelphia Union II or Birmingham Legion
76%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
61%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
19%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
80%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
47%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
22%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
46%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
51%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.64 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
39%
level
24%
Birmingham Legion scores more
37%

Philadelphia Union II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philadelphia Union II 2 – 3 Birmingham Legion

Birmingham Legion beat Philadelphia Union II 3-2 in USL Championship on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester, Pennsylvania).