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Birmingham Legion vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
3/10/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Birmingham Legion49%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.76
Philadelphia Union II
1.25

Birmingham Legion creates 41% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 43 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
73%
Birmingham Legion or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
51%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
27%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
83%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
52%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
26%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
71%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
36%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
64%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
49%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
27%

Birmingham Legion at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham Legion 0 – 2 Philadelphia Union II

Philadelphia Union II beat Birmingham Legion 2-0 in USL Championship on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham).