Philadelphia Union II 1–0 Atlanta United II

Philadelphia Union II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlanta United II

6/9/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 16Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Philadelphia Union II53%

×Draw21%

Atlanta United II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia Union IIExpected goals in this matchAtlanta United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.52

Philadelphia Union II

2.20

Atlanta United II

1.52

Philadelphia Union II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

2.00

creates per match

1.61

1.42

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II

2.00

Atlanta United II

1.61

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.42

Atlanta United II

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Atlanta United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Atlanta United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw

73%

Philadelphia Union II or Atlanta United II

79%

Draw or Atlanta United II

47%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

32%

Atlanta United II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

89%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

64%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

37%

Atlanta United II 1+ goals

78%

Atlanta United II 2+ goals

45%

Atlanta United II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

67%

Atlanta United II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Atlanta United II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Atlanta United II defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.20

Atlanta United II attack 1.61 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more

53%

level

21%

Atlanta United II scores more

27%

Philadelphia Union II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff