Atlanta United II 0–5 Philadelphia Union II

Atlanta United II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Philadelphia Union II

4/15/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 7Fifth Third Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Atlanta United II40%

×Draw22%

Philadelphia Union II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlanta United IIExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.73

Atlanta United II

1.78

Philadelphia Union II

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 56 away

1.95

creates per match

1.95

1.52

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Atlanta United II

1.95

Philadelphia Union II

1.95

allows per match

Atlanta United II

1.52

Philadelphia Union II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta United II+0.00on par

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta United II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Atlanta United II or draw

62%

Atlanta United II or Philadelphia Union II

78%

Draw or Philadelphia Union II

60%

Winning margin

Atlanta United II wins by 2+

21%

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atlanta United II 1+ goals

83%

Atlanta United II 2+ goals

53%

Atlanta United II 3+ goals

26%

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

82%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

52%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Atlanta United II (draw refunded)

51%

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta United II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta United II attack 1.95 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.78

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Atlanta United II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlanta United II scores more

40%

level

22%

Philadelphia Union II scores more

38%

Atlanta United II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlanta United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff