Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0–0 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

6/11/2016

Super League · Round 12Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC57%

×Draw21%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.17

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.02

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.17

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 71 away

1.97

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.97

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.24

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.10

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

78%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

79%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

43%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

34%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

87%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

60%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

33%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

69%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

33%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

72%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.10 · 69 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.97 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.24 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

57%

level

21%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

22%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Guan Zhen

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

8.0

Match Events

6'

Yong-Hyung Cho

14'

Zhi Zheng

30'

Bo Xu

40'

Hao Rong

45+2'

Li Xuepeng← Rong Hao

46'

Yu Hanchao← Zheng Zhi

55'

Diego Mauricio

67'

Fang Mei

69'

Sun Haosheng← Mao Jianqing

75'

Zheng Long← Gao Lin

80'

Liu Junpeng← Cui Peng

90+1'

Feng Shaoshun← Lü Jianjun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouShijiazhuang

Overview

69%Possession31%

22Total Shots10

7Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

22Total Shots10

4On Target1

12Off Target5

6Blocked4

9Inside Box5

13Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

493Total Passes218

427Accurate Passes151

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1