Pharco 2–2 Petrojet: Result & Stats

Pharco

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Petrojet

Ahmed Sherif 49'

Gaber Kamel 11'

Hamed Hamdan 90+4' (pen)

I. Bamba 25'

5/9/2025

Premier League · Championship Round - 5Haras El Hodoud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Pharco37%

×Draw29%

Petrojet34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PharcoExpected goals in this matchPetrojet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.10

Pharco

1.16

Petrojet

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 47 away

0.91

creates per match

1.17

1.04

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pharco

0.91

Petrojet

1.17

allows per match

Pharco

1.04

Petrojet

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pharco+0.00on par

Petrojet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pharco ↓

Petrojet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pharco or draw

66%

Pharco or Petrojet

71%

Draw or Petrojet

63%

Winning margin

Pharco wins by 2+

15%

Petrojet wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pharco 1+ goals

69%

Pharco 2+ goals

32%

Pharco 3+ goals

11%

Petrojet 1+ goals

67%

Petrojet 2+ goals

30%

Petrojet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pharco (draw refunded)

52%

Petrojet (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pharco at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.04 · 82 matches

Petrojet away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.40 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pharco attack 0.91 + Petrojet defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Petrojet attack 1.17 + Pharco defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pharco scores more

37%

level

29%

Petrojet scores more

34%

Pharco at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pharco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ahmed Farouk

Petrojet · F

7.7

Match Events

11'

Gaber Kamel↳ Z. El Moutaraji

25'

I. Bamba↳ G. Chukwudi

26'

Ahmed Awad

40'

Ahmed El Bahrawy

46'

Amr Nasser← Mohamed Ezz

49'

Ahmed Sherif

63'

Khalil Haggagy← Z. El Moutaraji

63'

Mostafa El Gamal← Adham Hamed

65'

Hady Reyad

68'

Islam Abdallah← Khaled Abo Ziada

68'

Ahmed Farouk← Mahmoud Shedid Kenawi

78'

Mahmoud Farahat← Ahmed Sherif

87'

Islam Hesham← Badr Moussa

87'

Abdelaziz El Sayed Zizo← Rashad Metwally

90+1'

Yassin Marei

90'

Seif Al Agouz← Gaber Kamel

90+4'

Hamed HamdanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PharcoPetrojet

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots19

7Corners7

9Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots19

3On Target8

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

344Total Passes362

229Accurate Passes256

67%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2