Petrojet 1–2 Pharco: Result & Stats

Petrojet

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Pharco

Rashad Metwally 73' (pen)

Walid Farag 41'

Mahmoud Gehad 23'

12/2/2024

Premier League · Round 4Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Petrojet35%

×Draw29%

Pharco36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrojetExpected goals in this matchPharco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.10

Petrojet

1.08

Pharco

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.15

creates per match

0.79

1.42

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Petrojet

1.15

Pharco

0.79

allows per match

Petrojet

1.42

Pharco

1.01

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Petrojet-0.15scores less

Pharco-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrojet ↓

Pharco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Petrojet or draw

64%

Petrojet or Pharco

71%

Draw or Pharco

65%

Winning margin

Petrojet wins by 2+

14%

Pharco wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Petrojet 1+ goals

66%

Petrojet 2+ goals

29%

Petrojet 3+ goals

10%

Pharco 1+ goals

67%

Pharco 2+ goals

30%

Pharco 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Petrojet (draw refunded)

49%

Pharco (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrojet at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Pharco away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrojet attack 1.15 + Pharco defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Pharco attack 0.79 + Petrojet defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Petrojet scores more

35%

level

29%

Pharco scores more

36%

Pharco at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pharco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Rashad Metwally

Petrojet · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Mahmoud Gehad

40'

Ahmed Bahbah

41'

Walid Farag

46'

Ahmed Ghoneim← Mahmoud Shedid Kenawi

55'

Ahmed Gamal

59'

Mostafa El Gamal← Badr Moussa

65'

Saif Terry← Ahmed Sherif

65'

Mohamed Fakhry← Ahmed Fouad

65'

Ahmed Awad← Walid Farag

70'

Gabriel ChukwudiPenalty confirmed

72'

Yassin Marei

73'

Rashad MetwallyPenalty

79'

Shokry Naguib← Amr Nasser

81'

Hamed Hemdan

83'

Islam Hesham← Rashad Metwally

83'

Khaled Abo Ziada← I. Bamba

84'

Khaled Abo Ziada

90+5'

Khaled Abo Ziada

90+5'

Khaled Abo Ziada

90+4'

Enoque← Mahmoud Gehad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrojetPharco

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots11

1Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked5

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

323Total Passes403

222Accurate Passes316

69%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1