Pharco 1–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: Result & Stats

Pharco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

5/15/2024

Premier League · Round 23Haras El Hodoud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pharco53%

×Draw26%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PharcoExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.84

Pharco

1.52

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.84

Pharco creates 81% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

0.91

creates per match

0.65

1.04

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Pharco

0.91

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

Pharco

1.04

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pharco+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pharco ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pharco or draw

79%

Pharco or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

74%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

47%

Winning margin

Pharco wins by 2+

28%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pharco 1+ goals

78%

Pharco 2+ goals

45%

Pharco 3+ goals

20%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

57%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

21%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pharco (draw refunded)

72%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pharco at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.04 · 82 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pharco attack 0.91 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Pharco defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pharco scores more

53%

level

26%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

21%

Pharco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pharco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff