Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3–2 Pharco: Result & Stats

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Pharco

11/4/2023

Premier League · Round 6El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla35%

×Draw28%

Pharco37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baladiyyat Al MehallaExpected goals in this matchPharco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.13

Pharco

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

1.18

creates per match

0.63

1.71

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.18

Pharco

0.63

allows per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.71

Pharco

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Pharco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ↓

Pharco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or draw

63%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or Pharco

72%

Draw or Pharco

65%

Winning margin

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

14%

Pharco wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

68%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

31%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

11%

Pharco 1+ goals

69%

Pharco 2+ goals

33%

Pharco 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

49%

Pharco (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Pharco away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 1.18 + Pharco defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pharco attack 0.63 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

35%

level

28%

Pharco scores more

37%

Pharco at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pharco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff