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PFF Developmental Club vs Manila Digger — PFL 2020

PFF Developmental Club
PFF Developmental Club
FT
1 – 9
HT: 0 – 7
Manila Digger
Manila Digger
2/2/2025PFLPFL · Round 5UP Diliman Football Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PFF Developmental Club10%
×Draw13%
Manila Digger77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFF Developmental Club
1.14
Manila Digger
3.22

Manila Digger creates 182% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

creates per match

PFF Developmental Club
1.50
Manila Digger
3.94

allows per match

PFF Developmental Club
2.50
Manila Digger
0.77

finishing

PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par
Manila Digger+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFF Developmental Club ↓

Manila Digger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

PFF Developmental Club or draw
23%
PFF Developmental Club or Manila Digger
87%
Draw or Manila Digger
90%

Winning margin

PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+
4%
Manila Digger wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals
68%
PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals
32%
PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals
11%
Manila Digger 1+ goals
96%
Manila Digger 2+ goals
82%
Manila Digger 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)
12%
Manila Digger (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFF Developmental Club at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Manila Digger away — creates 3.94, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFF Developmental Club attack 1.50 + Manila Digger defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Manila Digger attack 3.94 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

PFF Developmental Club scores more
10%
level
13%
Manila Digger scores more
77%

Manila Digger at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Manila Digger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: PFF Developmental Club 1–9 Manila Digger

Manila Digger beat PFF Developmental Club 9-1 in PFL on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at UP Diliman Football Pitch in Quezon City.