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Manila Digger vs PFF Developmental Club — PFL 2020

Manila Digger
Manila Digger
FT
7 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
PFF Developmental Club
PFF Developmental Club
Unknown 90', 71', 65', 58', 52', 45+1', 34'
Unknown 50'
3/1/2025PFLPFL · Round 6Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Manila Digger80%
×Draw13%
PFF Developmental Club7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manila Digger
2.88
PFF Developmental Club
0.74

Manila Digger creates 289% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

creates per match

Manila Digger
2.86
PFF Developmental Club
0.40

allows per match

Manila Digger
1.07
PFF Developmental Club
2.90

finishing

Manila Digger+0.00on par
PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manila Digger ↓

PFF Developmental Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Manila Digger or draw
93%
Manila Digger or PFF Developmental Club
87%
Draw or PFF Developmental Club
20%

Winning margin

Manila Digger wins by 2+
60%
PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Manila Digger 1+ goals
94%
Manila Digger 2+ goals
78%
Manila Digger 3+ goals
54%
PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals
52%
PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals
17%
PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manila Digger (draw refunded)
92%
PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manila Digger at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

PFF Developmental Club away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manila Digger attack 2.86 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.88

PFF Developmental Club attack 0.40 + Manila Digger defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Manila Digger scores more
80%
level
13%
PFF Developmental Club scores more
7%

Manila Digger at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Manila Digger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
45+1'
50'
52'
58'
65'
71'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Manila Digger 7–1 PFF Developmental Club

Manila Digger beat PFF Developmental Club 7-1 in PFL on March 1, 2025.

Goals: ? (34', 45+1', 50', 52', 58', 65', 71', 90').

The match was played at Biñan Football Stadium in Biñan.