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Pfeddersheim vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
0 – 0
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
4/1/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 4Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pfeddersheim37%
×Draw22%
Hertha Wiesbach41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.75
Hertha Wiesbach
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
2.50
Hertha Wiesbach
2.17

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.50
Hertha Wiesbach
1.00

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
59%
Pfeddersheim or Hertha Wiesbach
78%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
63%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
19%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
83%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
52%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
25%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
84%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
54%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
48%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 2.50 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.17 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
37%
level
22%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
41%

Hertha Wiesbach at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Hertha Wiesbach

Pfeddersheim and Hertha Wiesbach drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.