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Hertha Wiesbach vs Pfeddersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
CANC
14:30
Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
12/5/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach56%
×Draw20%
Pfeddersheim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.35
Pfeddersheim
1.52

Hertha Wiesbach creates 55% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
Pfeddersheim
1.22

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.81
Pfeddersheim
2.42

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Pfeddersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
75%
Hertha Wiesbach or Pfeddersheim
80%
Draw or Pfeddersheim
44%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
35%
Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
90%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
68%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
41%
Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
78%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
45%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
69%
Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Pfeddersheim away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Pfeddersheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.35

Pfeddersheim attack 1.22 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
56%
level
20%
Pfeddersheim scores more
25%

Hertha Wiesbach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hertha Wiesbach host Pfeddersheim

December 5, 2020: Hertha Wiesbach take on Pfeddersheim in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hertha Wiesbach host Pfeddersheim at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.