Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pfeddersheim vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
FT
0 – 1
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
12/10/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Uwe-Becker-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pfeddersheim51%
×Draw23%
Ahrweiler BC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pfeddersheim
1.81
Ahrweiler BC
1.24

Pfeddersheim creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pfeddersheim
1.82
Ahrweiler BC
0.60

allows per match

Pfeddersheim
1.89
Ahrweiler BC
1.80

finishing

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pfeddersheim ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pfeddersheim or draw
74%
Pfeddersheim or Ahrweiler BC
77%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
49%

Winning margin

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
28%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
84%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
54%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
27%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
71%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
35%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
66%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pfeddersheim at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pfeddersheim attack 1.82 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + Pfeddersheim defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pfeddersheim scores more
51%
level
23%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
26%

Pfeddersheim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pfeddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pfeddersheim vs Ahrweiler BC

Ahrweiler BC beat Pfeddersheim 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Uwe-Becker-Stadion in Worms.