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Ahrweiler BC vs Pfeddersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
1 – 3
Pfeddersheim
Pfeddersheim
9/24/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC43%
×Draw21%
Pfeddersheim35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
2.01
Pfeddersheim
1.81

Ahrweiler BC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.60
Pfeddersheim
1.22

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.40
Pfeddersheim
2.42

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Pfeddersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
65%
Ahrweiler BC or Pfeddersheim
79%
Draw or Pfeddersheim
57%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
24%
Pfeddersheim wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
87%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
59%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
32%
Pfeddersheim 1+ goals
84%
Pfeddersheim 2+ goals
54%
Pfeddersheim 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
55%
Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

Pfeddersheim away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + Pfeddersheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.01

Pfeddersheim attack 1.22 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
43%
level
21%
Pfeddersheim scores more
35%

Ahrweiler BC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ahrweiler BC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs Pfeddersheim

Pfeddersheim beat Ahrweiler BC 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.