PFC Sochi 1–2 Orenburg: Result & Stats | Cup

PFC Sochi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orenburg

10/4/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

PFC Sochi40%

×Draw23%

Orenburg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.59

PFC Sochi

1.68

Orenburg

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.42

creates per match

0.94

2.25

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.42

Orenburg

0.94

allows per match

PFC Sochi

2.25

Orenburg

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

63%

PFC Sochi or Orenburg

77%

Draw or Orenburg

60%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

21%

Orenburg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

81%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

50%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

24%

Orenburg 1+ goals

80%

Orenburg 2+ goals

47%

Orenburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

52%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.42 + Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.68

Orenburg attack 0.94 + PFC Sochi defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

40%

level

23%

Orenburg scores more

37%

PFC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff