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FC Orenburg vs FC Sochi — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
J. Thompson 62'
M. Ignatov 37' (OG)
E. Gurluk 9'
F. Kamano 40'
11/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Gazovik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

FC Orenburg46%
×Draw26%
FC Sochi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.52
FC Sochi
1.14

FC Orenburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
FC Sochi
1.08

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
FC Sochi
1.66

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
71%
FC Orenburg or FC Sochi
74%
Draw or FC Sochi
54%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
23%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
78%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
45%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
20%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
68%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
32%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
62%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + FC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Sochi attack 1.08 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
46%
level
26%
FC Sochi scores more
29%

FC Orenburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
J. ThompsonFC OrenburgFC Orenburg · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
E. Gurluk↳ J. Thompson
16'
Anri Chichinadze
22'
Roman Ezhov
37'
M. IgnatovOwn goal
40'
F. Kamano↳ D. Vasiljev
50'
Gedeon GuzinaGoal cancelled
62'
J. Thompson
75'
A. Korneev← R. Ezhov
75'
A. Kovalenko← D. Vasiljev
75'
R. Bart← A. Zinkovskiy
77'
Danila Khotulev
78'
V. Kamilov← Du Queiroz
78'
S. Oganesyan← E. Gurluk
78'
V. Bubanja← D. Rybchinskiy
83'
S. Poroykov← G. Guzina
85'
M. Savelyev← J. Thompson
86'
Ignacio Saavedra
90+3'
Irakliy Kvekveskiri
90'
A. Makarchuk← F. Kamano
90'
Z. Fedorov← M. Ignatov

Possession

42%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
42%Possession58%
16Total Shots8
1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.10
1Corners1
20Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots8
7On Target3
5Off Target2
4Blocked3
7Inside Box4
9Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
276Total Passes385
196Accurate Passes306
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs FC Sochi

FC Orenburg beat FC Sochi 3-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2025.

Goals: E. Gurluk (9'), M. Ignatov (37' o.g.), F. Kamano (40'), J. Thompson (62').

FC Sochi controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Gazovik Stadium in Orenburg.