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PFC Sochi vs Orenburg — Premier League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
3/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi52%
×Draw23%
Orenburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.79
Orenburg
1.15

PFC Sochi creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.69
Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

PFC Sochi
1.24
Orenburg
1.89

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
76%
PFC Sochi or Orenburg
77%
Draw or Orenburg
48%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
29%
Orenburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
83%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
53%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
26%
Orenburg 1+ goals
68%
Orenburg 2+ goals
32%
Orenburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
68%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Orenburg attack 1.05 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
52%
level
23%
Orenburg scores more
24%

PFC Sochi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PFC Sochi vs Orenburg

PFC Sochi beat Orenburg 5-1 in Premier League on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.