PFC Sochi 5–2 Enisey: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

5 – 2

Enisey

D. Kirakosyan 97'

G. Melkadze 91', 83'

T. Shipunov 35'

K. Kravtsov 5'

D. Polshikov 116', 103'

7/10/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PFC Sochi41%

×Draw23%

Enisey36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.57

PFC Sochi

1.68

Enisey

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.43

1.71

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

PFC Sochi

2.14

Enisey

1.43

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.71

Enisey

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

64%

PFC Sochi or Enisey

77%

Draw or Enisey

59%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

21%

Enisey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

81%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

50%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

24%

Enisey 1+ goals

79%

Enisey 2+ goals

46%

Enisey 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

53%

Enisey (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 2.14 + Enisey defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Enisey attack 1.43 + PFC Sochi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

41%

level

23%

Enisey scores more

36%

PFC Sochi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

35'

83'

91'

97'

D. Kirakosyan

103'

D. Polshikov

116'

D. Polshikov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PFC Sochi vs Enisey

PFC Sochi beat Enisey 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2023.

Goals: K. Kravtsov (5'), T. Shipunov (35'), G. Melkadze (83', 91'), D. Kirakosyan (97'), D. Polshikov (103', 116').

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.

PFC Sochi vs Enisey — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: PFC Sochi vs Enisey