FC Sochi 2–1 Enisey: Result & Stats | First League

FC Sochi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Enisey

V. Pisarskiy 76'

P. Meleshin 66' (pen)

A. Dolgov 90+2'

3/31/2025

First League · Round 26Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi54%

×Draw25%

Enisey22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.94

FC Sochi

1.64

Enisey

0.94

FC Sochi creates 74% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 124 away

1.84

creates per match

1.02

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.84

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

FC Sochi

0.86

Enisey

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

78%

FC Sochi or Enisey

75%

Draw or Enisey

46%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

29%

Enisey wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

81%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

49%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

23%

Enisey 1+ goals

61%

Enisey 2+ goals

24%

Enisey 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

71%

Enisey (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Enisey attack 1.02 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Sochi scores more

54%

level

25%

Enisey scores more

22%

FC Sochi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Artur Gilyazetdinov

13'

Andrey Okladnikov

33'

O. Kenfack← A. Gilyazetdinov

40'

44'

45+3'

46'

63'

N. Burmistrov← K. Zaika

66'

P. MeleshinPenalty

71'

Émerson

76'

V. Pisarskiy

79'

M. Kaynov← P. Meleshin

79'

A. Batyrev← K. Ushatov

79'

Y. Bavin← A. Chukanov

79'

A. Belem← A. Kanaplin

83'

A. Dolgov← A. Okladnikov

84'

Oleg Kozhemyakin

85'

O. Kozhemyakin← V. Pisarskiy

85'

K. Nikitin← S. Terekhov

90+2'

A. Dolgov

Statistics

FCEnisey

Discipline

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

First League: FC Sochi 2–1 Enisey

FC Sochi beat Enisey 2-1 in First League on March 31, 2025.

Goals: P. Meleshin (66' pen), V. Pisarskiy (76'), A. Dolgov (90+2').

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.

FC Sochi vs Enisey — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: FC Sochi 2–1 Enisey