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PFC Sochi vs Baltika — First League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika
Baltika
11/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PFC Sochi44%
×Draw26%
Baltika29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.42
Baltika
1.10

PFC Sochi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 108 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.84
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

PFC Sochi
0.86
Baltika
1.00

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
71%
PFC Sochi or Baltika
74%
Draw or Baltika
56%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
21%
Baltika wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
76%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
41%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
17%
Baltika 1+ goals
67%
Baltika 2+ goals
30%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
60%
Baltika (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Baltika attack 1.35 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
44%
level
26%
Baltika scores more
29%

PFC Sochi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PFC Sochi vs Baltika

PFC Sochi beat Baltika 4-1 in First League on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi).