Baltika 0–0 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

PFC Sochi

3/3/2024

Premier League · Round 19Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika47%

×Draw26%

PFC Sochi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Baltika

1.46

PFC Sochi

1.02

Baltika creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

1.27

creates per match

1.08

0.97

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

PFC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Baltika

0.97

PFC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

74%

Baltika or PFC Sochi

74%

Draw or PFC Sochi

53%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

23%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

77%

Baltika 2+ goals

43%

Baltika 3+ goals

18%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

64%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

27%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

64%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baltika scores more

47%

level

26%

PFC Sochi scores more

26%

Baltika at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff