FC Sochi 1–1 Baltika: Result & Stats | First League

FC Sochi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika

R. Bart 32'

K. Malyarov 68'

7/21/2024

First League · Round 2Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi44%

×Draw26%

Baltika29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

FC Sochi

1.43

Baltika

1.11

FC Sochi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 107 away

1.84

creates per match

1.36

0.86

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.84

Baltika

1.36

allows per match

FC Sochi

0.86

Baltika

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

71%

FC Sochi or Baltika

74%

Draw or Baltika

56%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

21%

Baltika wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

76%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

42%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

17%

Baltika 1+ goals

67%

Baltika 2+ goals

30%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

60%

Baltika (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.01 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Baltika defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.43

Baltika attack 1.36 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Sochi scores more

44%

level

26%

Baltika scores more

29%

FC Sochi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

30'

32'

37'

46'

55'

Alex← V. Saus

55'

K. Nikishin← I. Stefanovich

57'

R. Magal← M. Kramarič

57'

V. Lazarev← A. Makarov

68'

K. Malyarov

72'

T. Avanesyan← K. Kaplenko

77'

Z. Fedorov← A. Makarchuk

77'

I. Safronov← R. Bart

84'

Sergey Pryakhin

85'

V. Levin← K. Kravtsov

87'

D. Terentyev← A. Mokhammad

FC4-3-3

Baltika3-4-3

23

Glushkov

9

▼

Stefanovi

17

▼

Saus

19

Pryakhin

5

Osipov

8

▼

Kaplenko

96

▼

Mokhammad

4

Gassama

2

▼

16

67

1

17

▼

4

33

27

88

▼

Makarov

14

▼

Kravtsov

21

Saavedra

10

▼

Kramarič

59

⚽

▼

Bart

23

Guarirapa

Manager: Robert Moreno

57'▲R. Magal←▼M. Kramarič

57'▲V. Lazarev←▼A. Makarov

77'▲Z. Fedorov←▼A. Makarchuk

77'▲I. Safronov←▼R. Bart

85'▲V. Levin←▼K. Kravtsov

FC Sochi substitutes

28Magal89Lazarev11Fedorov77Safronov6Levin12Zabolotny15Suslov18Burmistrov20Martovoy22Kozhemyakin24Khezhev72Shagiakhmetov

Manager: A. Grishchenko

46'▲K. Malyarov←▼D. Luna

55'▲Alex←▼V. Saus

55'▲K. Nikishin←▼I. Stefanovich

72'▲T. Avanesyan←▼K. Kaplenko

87'▲D. Terentyev←▼A. Mokhammad

Baltika substitutes

7Malyarov10Alex18Nikishin59Avanesyan13Terentyev1Svinov22Titkov44Lyubakov80Arbuzov90Kamaev95Petrov

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Baltika

FC Sochi and Baltika drew 1-1 in First League on July 21, 2024.

Goals: R. Bart (32'), K. Malyarov (68').

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.

FC Sochi vs Baltika — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Baltika