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PFC Sochi vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2018

PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
10/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

PFC Sochi54%
×Draw25%
Avangard Kursk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PFC Sochi
1.61
Avangard Kursk
0.90

PFC Sochi creates 79% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

creates per match

PFC Sochi
1.84
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

PFC Sochi
0.86
Avangard Kursk
1.38

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw
79%
PFC Sochi or Avangard Kursk
75%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
46%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+
29%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals
80%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
48%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
22%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
59%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
23%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
72%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.84 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + PFC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

PFC Sochi scores more
54%
level
25%
Avangard Kursk scores more
21%

PFC Sochi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: PFC Sochi 1–0 Avangard Kursk

PFC Sochi beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in First League on October 24, 2018.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht (Sochi).