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Avangard Kursk vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
5/11/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Avangard Kursk36%
×Draw27%
PFC Sochi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.25
PFC Sochi
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.42
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.12
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
62%
Avangard Kursk or PFC Sochi
73%
Draw or PFC Sochi
64%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
15%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
71%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
36%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
13%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
72%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
37%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
49%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
36%
level
27%
PFC Sochi scores more
38%

PFC Sochi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Avangard Kursk 2–1 PFC Sochi

Avangard Kursk beat PFC Sochi 2-1 in First League on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk).