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Landskrona BoIS vs IK Frej — Superettan 2018

Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
IK Frej
IK Frej
9/30/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Landskrona Idrottsplats (Landskrona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Landskrona BoIS48%
×Draw24%
IK Frej28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landskrona BoIS
1.69
IK Frej
1.25

Landskrona BoIS creates 35% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.55
IK Frej
1.30

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.21
IK Frej
1.83

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw
72%
Landskrona BoIS or IK Frej
76%
Draw or IK Frej
52%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
25%
IK Frej wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
82%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
50%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
24%
IK Frej 1+ goals
71%
IK Frej 2+ goals
36%
IK Frej 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
63%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

IK Frej attack 1.30 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more
48%
level
24%
IK Frej scores more
28%

Landskrona BoIS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landskrona BoIS vs IK Frej

IK Frej beat Landskrona BoIS 4-3 in Superettan on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats (Landskrona).