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IK Frej vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
5/19/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 8Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej38%
×Draw24%
Landskrona BoIS38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 98 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
62%
IK Frej or Landskrona BoIS
76%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
62%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
18%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
78%
IK Frej 2+ goals
45%
IK Frej 3+ goals
20%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
78%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
45%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
50%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IK Frej scores more
38%
level
24%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
38%

IK Frej at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IK Frej 2–1 Landskrona BoIS

IK Frej beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 in Superettan on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Vikingavallen (Täby).