Vasby United 0–0 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Vasby United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Helsingborg

9/15/2018

Superettan · Round 23Tunavallen (Eskilstuna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vasby United43%

×Draw26%

Helsingborg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.21

Vasby United

1.48

Helsingborg

1.21

Vasby United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

1.59

creates per match

1.47

0.95

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Vasby United

1.59

Helsingborg

1.47

allows per match

Vasby United

0.95

Helsingborg

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

69%

Vasby United or Helsingborg

74%

Draw or Helsingborg

57%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

21%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

77%

Vasby United 2+ goals

43%

Vasby United 3+ goals

19%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

70%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

34%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

58%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.59 + Helsingborg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Helsingborg attack 1.47 + Vasby United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vasby United scores more

43%

level

26%

Helsingborg scores more

31%

Vasby United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. Joelsson← P. Hansson

57'

M. Holgersson← A. Randrup

Vasby

Helsingborg

30

▼

Hansson

4

Granqvist

7

▼

11

21

14

10

15

20

9

8

1

77

22

19

2

26

3

21

14

9

8

Manager: N. Miljanovic

Vasby United substitutes

7Ali13Diaby18Akpoveta31Lagoun4Pelé42Cissoko99Kargbo

Manager: P. Ljung

38'▲K. Joelsson←▼P. Hansson

57'▲M. Holgersson←▼A. Randrup

Helsingborg substitutes

25Joelsson57Holgersson2Johansson3Liverstam6Landgren40Sundell99Bjarnason