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Helsingborg vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2018

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
5/2/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Helsingborg50%
×Draw25%
AFC Eskilstuna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.57
AFC Eskilstuna
1.01

Helsingborg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 75 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
1.54
AFC Eskilstuna
1.00

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.02
AFC Eskilstuna
1.60

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
76%
Helsingborg or AFC Eskilstuna
75%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
26%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
79%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
46%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
21%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
64%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
27%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
67%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.54 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Helsingborg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Helsingborg scores more
50%
level
25%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
24%

Helsingborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helsingborg vs AFC Eskilstuna

Helsingborg beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 in Superettan on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.