Helsingborg 2–1 Vasby United: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vasby United

9/22/2019

Allsvenskan · Round 24Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Helsingborg51%

×Draw26%

Vasby United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Helsingborg

1.50

Vasby United

0.90

Helsingborg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

0.87

creates per match

0.53

1.26

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Helsingborg

0.87

Vasby United

0.53

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.26

Vasby United

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

77%

Helsingborg or Vasby United

74%

Draw or Vasby United

49%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

26%

Vasby United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

78%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

44%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

19%

Vasby United 1+ goals

59%

Vasby United 2+ goals

23%

Vasby United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

69%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Vasby United away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + Vasby United defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vasby United attack 0.53 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Helsingborg scores more

51%

level

26%

Vasby United scores more

23%

Helsingborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff