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Petržalka W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Petržalka W
Petržalka W
FT
2 – 1
Nitra W
Nitra W
9/12/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 7Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Petržalka W44%
×Draw20%
Nitra W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka W
2.30
Nitra W
2.06

Petržalka W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Petržalka W
1.48
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Petržalka W
2.31
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Petržalka W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Petržalka W or draw
64%
Petržalka W or Nitra W
80%
Draw or Nitra W
56%

Winning margin

Petržalka W wins by 2+
26%
Nitra W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Petržalka W 1+ goals
90%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
67%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
40%
Nitra W 1+ goals
87%
Nitra W 2+ goals
61%
Nitra W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Petržalka W (draw refunded)
55%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka W attack 1.48 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.30

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Petržalka W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Petržalka W scores more
44%
level
20%
Nitra W scores more
36%

Petržalka W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petržalka W vs Nitra W

Petržalka W beat Nitra W 2-1 in I Liga - Women on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.