Nitra W 1–3 Petržalka W: Result & Stats

Nitra W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Petržalka W

5/15/2022

I Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 8Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nitra W32%

×Draw19%

Petržalka W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nitra WExpected goals in this matchPetržalka W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.63

Nitra W

2.10

Petržalka W

2.63

Petržalka W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

1.56

creates per match

1.38

3.88

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Nitra W

1.56

Petržalka W

1.38

allows per match

Nitra W

3.88

Petržalka W

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra W+0.00on par

Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra W ↓

Petržalka W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Nitra W or draw

50%

Nitra W or Petržalka W

81%

Draw or Petržalka W

68%

Winning margin

Nitra W wins by 2+

17%

Petržalka W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Nitra W 1+ goals

88%

Nitra W 2+ goals

62%

Nitra W 3+ goals

35%

Petržalka W 1+ goals

93%

Petržalka W 2+ goals

73%

Petržalka W 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Nitra W (draw refunded)

39%

Petržalka W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.88 · 16 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra W attack 1.56 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.10

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Nitra W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nitra W scores more

32%

level

19%

Petržalka W scores more

50%

Petržalka W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff