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Petřvald na Moravě vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Petřvald na Moravě
Petřvald na Moravě
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
10/5/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 10Fotbalove hřiště Petřvald na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Petřvald na Moravě61%
×Draw19%
Beskyd Frenštát20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřvald na Moravě
2.37
Beskyd Frenštát
1.28

Petřvald na Moravě creates 85% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Petřvald na Moravě
2.37
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Petřvald na Moravě
1.33
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Petřvald na Moravě+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřvald na Moravě ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Petřvald na Moravě or draw
80%
Petřvald na Moravě or Beskyd Frenštát
81%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
39%

Winning margin

Petřvald na Moravě wins by 2+
39%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Petřvald na Moravě 1+ goals
91%
Petřvald na Moravě 2+ goals
68%
Petřvald na Moravě 3+ goals
42%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
72%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
37%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Petřvald na Moravě (draw refunded)
76%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřvald na Moravě at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřvald na Moravě attack 2.37 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.37

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Petřvald na Moravě defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Petřvald na Moravě scores more
61%
level
19%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
20%

Petřvald na Moravě at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Petřvald na Moravě will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Petřvald na Moravě 5–1 Beskyd Frenštát

Petřvald na Moravě beat Beskyd Frenštát 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalove hřiště Petřvald na Moravě in Petřvald na Moravě.