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Beskyd Frenštát vs Petřvald na Moravě — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Petřvald na Moravě
Petřvald na Moravě
5/11/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 25Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát37%
×Draw23%
Petřvald na Moravě40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.61
Petřvald na Moravě
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Petřvald na Moravě
1.57

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Petřvald na Moravě
1.63

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Petřvald na Moravě+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Petřvald na Moravě →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
60%
Beskyd Frenštát or Petřvald na Moravě
77%
Draw or Petřvald na Moravě
63%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
18%
Petřvald na Moravě wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
80%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
48%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
22%
Petřvald na Moravě 1+ goals
82%
Petřvald na Moravě 2+ goals
50%
Petřvald na Moravě 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
48%
Petřvald na Moravě (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Petřvald na Moravě away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Petřvald na Moravě defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Petřvald na Moravě attack 1.57 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
37%
level
23%
Petřvald na Moravě scores more
40%

Petřvald na Moravě at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Petřvald na Moravě will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 1–3 Petřvald na Moravě

Petřvald na Moravě beat Beskyd Frenštát 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.