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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Oţelul
Oţelul
5/12/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 8Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti36%
×Draw29%
Oţelul36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.11
Oţelul
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 58 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.09
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.13
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
64%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Oţelul
71%
Draw or Oţelul
64%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
14%
Oţelul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
30%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
10%
Oţelul 1+ goals
67%
Oţelul 2+ goals
30%
Oţelul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
50%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
36%
level
29%
Oţelul scores more
36%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Petrolul Ploiesti 1–3 Oţelul

Oţelul beat Petrolul Ploiesti 3-1 in Liga I on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.