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Oţelul vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
1/18/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 22Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oţelul57%
×Draw22%
Petrolul Ploiesti21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.91
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.05

Oţelul creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oţelul
2.12
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

Oţelul
1.30
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.69

finishing

Oţelul-0.52scores less
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
79%
Oţelul or Petrolul Ploiesti
78%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
43%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
33%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
85%
Oţelul 2+ goals
57%
Oţelul 3+ goals
30%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
28%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
74%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 2.12 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.91

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Oţelul defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Oţelul scores more
57%
level
22%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
21%

Oţelul at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oţelul vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Oţelul and Petrolul Ploiesti drew 0-0 in Liga I on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.