Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

2/6/2025

Liga I · Round 25Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti30%

×Draw27%

FCSB42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.32

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.08

FCSB

1.32

FCSB creates 22% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 155 away

1.09

creates per match

1.51

1.13

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.09

FCSB

1.51

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.13

FCSB

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

58%

Petrolul Ploiesti or FCSB

73%

Draw or FCSB

70%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

12%

FCSB wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

66%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

29%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

10%

FCSB 1+ goals

73%

FCSB 2+ goals

38%

FCSB 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

42%

FCSB (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

FCSB attack 1.51 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

30%

level

27%

FCSB scores more

42%

FCSB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff