FCSB 1–1 Petrolul Ploiesti: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

11/22/2025

Liga I · Round 17Arena Nationala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FCSB59%

×Draw23%

Petrolul Ploiesti18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.88

FCSB

1.79

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.88

FCSB creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.89

creates per match

0.80

0.95

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FCSB

1.89

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

allows per match

FCSB

0.95

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.69

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

FCSB+0.11scores more

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

82%

FCSB or Petrolul Ploiesti

77%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

41%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

34%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

83%

FCSB 2+ goals

53%

FCSB 3+ goals

26%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

59%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

22%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

76%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 5 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.89 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + FCSB defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FCSB scores more

59%

level

23%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

18%

FCSB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff