Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FCSB

G. Grozav 90+7' (pen)

Jair 70'

A. Băluță 49'

D. Đoković 2'

10/28/2023

Liga I · Round 14Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti36%

×Draw23%

FCSB41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.69

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.58

FCSB

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.68

1.71

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.44

FCSB

1.68

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.71

FCSB

1.73

-0.87scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti-0.87scores less

FCSB-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

59%

Petrolul Ploiesti or FCSB

77%

Draw or FCSB

64%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

18%

FCSB wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

79%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

47%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

21%

FCSB 1+ goals

82%

FCSB 2+ goals

50%

FCSB 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

47%

FCSB (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.44 + FCSB defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

FCSB attack 1.68 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

36%

level

23%

FCSB scores more

41%

FCSB at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Jair

Petrolul Ploiesti · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

D. Đoković

26'

Joyskim Dawa

31'

Z. Petrović← S. Hanca

35'

M. Lixandru← J. Dawa

46'

M. Rădulescu← I. Răducan

46'

I. Diomandé← Pedro Justiniano

46'

D. Miculescu← Octavian Popescu

49'

52'

60'

62'

67'

69'

70'

81'

83'

G. Abuashvili← Z. Petrović

90+3'

Alexandru Pantea

90+2'

A. Compagno← A. Băluță

90+7'

G. GrozavPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrolulFCSB

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots14

7Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots14

6On Target5

3Off Target8

6Blocked1

8Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

414Total Passes469

320Accurate Passes375

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Liga I: Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 FCSB

Petrolul Ploiesti and FCSB drew 2-2 in Liga I on October 28, 2023.

Goals: D. Đoković (2'), A. Băluță (49'), Jair (70'), G. Grozav (90+7' pen).

FCSB controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.

Petrolul Ploiesti vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga I: Petrolul Ploiesti 2–2 FCSB