Petrolul Ploiesti 0–2 FC Voluntari: Result & Stats

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Voluntari

A. Nemec 78'

R. Boboc 77'

7/31/2023

Liga I · Round 3Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti42%

×Draw28%

FC Voluntari30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchFC Voluntari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.07

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.31

FC Voluntari

1.07

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 22% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 119 away

1.09

creates per match

1.01

1.13

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.09

FC Voluntari

1.01

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.13

FC Voluntari

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

FC Voluntari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

70%

Petrolul Ploiesti or FC Voluntari

72%

Draw or FC Voluntari

58%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

19%

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

73%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

38%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

14%

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

66%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

29%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

58%

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

FC Voluntari away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + FC Voluntari defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Voluntari attack 1.01 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

42%

level

28%

FC Voluntari scores more

30%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

A. Nemec

FC Voluntari · F

8.2

Match Events

25'

Valentin Țicu

35'

Guilherme Garutti

45'

Cristian Merloi

46'

L. Dumitriu← Z. Petrović

63'

M. Rădulescu← A. Musi

63'

C. Irobiso← C. Budescu

66'

Christian Irobiso

70'

S. Hanca← G. Grozav

73'

Marcelo Lopes← G. Merloi

74'

74'

77'

77'

78'

81'

84'

90+1'

A. Cocian← L. Crepulja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PetrolulFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots14

0.94Expected Goals (xG)2.53

2Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots14

3On Target6

12Off Target4

4Blocked4

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

519Total Passes469

446Accurate Passes393

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3