FC Voluntari 0–0 Petrolul Ploiesti: Result & Stats

FC Voluntari

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

12/1/2023

Liga I · Round 18Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

FC Voluntari42%

×Draw30%

Petrolul Ploiesti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC VoluntariExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.92

FC Voluntari

1.19

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.92

FC Voluntari creates 29% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 77 away

1.16

creates per match

0.78

1.05

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

FC Voluntari

1.16

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.78

allows per match

FC Voluntari

1.05

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Voluntari ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FC Voluntari or draw

72%

FC Voluntari or Petrolul Ploiesti

70%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

58%

Winning margin

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

18%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

70%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

33%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

12%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

60%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

23%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

60%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Voluntari at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Voluntari attack 1.16 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.78 + FC Voluntari defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Voluntari scores more

42%

level

30%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

28%

FC Voluntari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Voluntari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff