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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
5/11/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 34Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploieşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti82%
×Draw12%
Dacia Unirea Braila6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
2.92
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 329% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
94%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Dacia Unirea Braila
88%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
18%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
62%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
94%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
78%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
55%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
49%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
15%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
93%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.92

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
82%
level
12%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
6%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Petrolul Ploiesti 9–1 Dacia Unirea Braila

Petrolul Ploiesti beat Dacia Unirea Braila 9-1 in Liga II on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană (Ploieşti).