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Dacia Unirea Braila vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
11/3/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila17%
×Draw22%
Petrolul Ploiesti61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.91
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.92

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 111% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.57

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.93

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
39%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Petrolul Ploiesti
78%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
83%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
6%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
60%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
23%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
6%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
85%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
57%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
22%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
17%
level
22%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
61%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 2–3 Petrolul Ploiesti

Petrolul Ploiesti beat Dacia Unirea Braila 3-2 in Liga II on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).