Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 AFC Hermannstadt

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

8/16/2025

Liga I · Round 6Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti42%

×Draw28%

AFC Hermannstadt30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.25

AFC Hermannstadt

1.01

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 24% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 138 away

1.09

creates per match

0.90

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.09

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.13

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

70%

Petrolul Ploiesti or AFC Hermannstadt

72%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

58%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

19%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

71%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

36%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

13%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

64%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

27%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

42%

level

28%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

30%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff