AFC Hermannstadt 1–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

AFC Hermannstadt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Petrolul Ploiesti

12/21/2025

Liga I · Round 21Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt43%

×Draw29%

Petrolul Ploiesti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HermannstadtExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.92

AFC Hermannstadt

1.21

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.92

AFC Hermannstadt creates 32% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 77 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.20

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.78

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.06

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw

72%

AFC Hermannstadt or Petrolul Ploiesti

71%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

57%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

19%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

70%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

34%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

12%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

60%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

23%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

60%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.78 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

43%

level

29%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

28%

AFC Hermannstadt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff