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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs Minervén — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
CANC
00:00
Minervén
Minervén
4/1/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui74%
×Draw15%
Minervén11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
2.65
Minervén
0.90

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 194% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
Minervén
0.67

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13
Minervén
3.78

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
Minervén+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

Minervén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
89%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or Minervén
85%
Draw or Minervén
26%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
53%
Minervén wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
93%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
74%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
48%
Minervén 1+ goals
59%
Minervén 2+ goals
23%
Minervén 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
88%
Minervén (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Minervén away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + Minervén defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.65

Minervén attack 0.67 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
74%
level
15%
Minervén scores more
11%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Petrolero de Anzoategui host Minervén

April 1, 2020: Petrolero de Anzoategui take on Minervén in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.