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Minervén vs Petrolero de Anzoategui — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
CANC
00:00
Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
3/15/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 5CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén20%
×Draw20%
Petrolero de Anzoategui60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
1.17
Petrolero de Anzoategui
2.19

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 87% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.58

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Petrolero de Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
40%
Minervén or Petrolero de Anzoategui
80%
Draw or Petrolero de Anzoategui
80%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
7%
Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
69%
Minervén 2+ goals
33%
Minervén 3+ goals
11%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
89%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
64%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
25%
Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.13 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Minervén scores more
20%
level
20%
Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
60%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minervén face Petrolero de Anzoategui (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Minervén hosting Petrolero de Anzoategui. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Minervén host Petrolero de Anzoategui at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.