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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs Gran Valencia — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
FT
0 – 1
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
5/30/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 20Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui43%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.47
Gran Valencia
1.23

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
Gran Valencia
1.30

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.17
Gran Valencia
1.41

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
68%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
57%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
21%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
77%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
43%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
18%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
71%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
35%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
57%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + Gran Valencia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gran Valencia attack 1.30 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
43%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
32%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Petrolero de Anzoategui 0–1 Gran Valencia

Gran Valencia beat Petrolero de Anzoategui 1-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).