Gran Valencia 1–3 Petrolero de Anzoategui

Gran Valencia

FT

1 – 3

Petrolero de Anzoategui

4/4/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Giuseppe Antonelli (Turmero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gran Valencia49%

×Draw25%

Petrolero de Anzoategui26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gran ValenciaExpected goals in this matchPetrolero de Anzoategui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.05

Gran Valencia

1.55

Petrolero de Anzoategui

1.05

Gran Valencia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.39

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Gran Valencia

1.39

Petrolero de Anzoategui

1.10

allows per match

Gran Valencia

1.00

Petrolero de Anzoategui

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Valencia ↓

Petrolero de Anzoategui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gran Valencia or draw

74%

Gran Valencia or Petrolero de Anzoategui

75%

Draw or Petrolero de Anzoategui

51%

Winning margin

Gran Valencia wins by 2+

25%

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gran Valencia 1+ goals

79%

Gran Valencia 2+ goals

46%

Gran Valencia 3+ goals

20%

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals

65%

Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals

28%

Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gran Valencia (draw refunded)

65%

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Valencia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Valencia attack 1.39 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.10 + Gran Valencia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gran Valencia scores more

49%

level

25%

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more

26%

Gran Valencia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gran Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff