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Petrolero de Anzoategui vs Fundacion AIFI — Segunda División 2018

Petrolero de Anzoategui
Petrolero de Anzoategui
CANC
19:30
Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
5/9/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Petrolero de Anzoategui51%
×Draw25%
Fundacion AIFI24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.56
Fundacion AIFI
0.99

Petrolero de Anzoategui creates 58% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.53
Fundacion AIFI
0.85

allows per match

Petrolero de Anzoategui
1.13
Fundacion AIFI
1.59

finishing

Petrolero de Anzoategui+0.00on par
Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolero de Anzoategui ↓

Fundacion AIFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Petrolero de Anzoategui or draw
76%
Petrolero de Anzoategui or Fundacion AIFI
75%
Draw or Fundacion AIFI
49%

Winning margin

Petrolero de Anzoategui wins by 2+
26%
Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Petrolero de Anzoategui 1+ goals
79%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 2+ goals
46%
Petrolero de Anzoategui 3+ goals
21%
Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
63%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
26%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petrolero de Anzoategui (draw refunded)
68%
Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolero de Anzoategui at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolero de Anzoategui attack 1.53 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Petrolero de Anzoategui defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Petrolero de Anzoategui scores more
51%
level
25%
Fundacion AIFI scores more
24%

Petrolero de Anzoategui at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Petrolero de Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Petrolero de Anzoategui host Fundacion AIFI

May 9, 2020: Petrolero de Anzoategui take on Fundacion AIFI in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.